At the start of September, global currency platforms remain cautious. Investors are closely watching the movement of the US dollar, fluctuations in the rupee, and changes in central bank policies. Market volatility is gradually increasing, creating conditions for quick and sharp moves in major currency pairs.

Dollar loses ground on expectations

The American currency shows weakness after the release of labor market and inflation data. Market participants are confident that in September the Federal Reserve may lower its key rate, and the likelihood of this scenario is considered very high.

The dollar’s decline affects not only pairs with the euro and yen but also the dynamics in emerging markets. At the same time, experts emphasize that the political climate in the US and uncertainty around regulatory decisions may become an additional source of instability.

Rupee under pressure

The Indian rupee continues to lose value, dropping below the 89 per dollar mark for the first time. This has raised concerns among companies dependent on imports and currency settlements. In such conditions, the Reserve Bank of India is strengthening work on the structure of its foreign exchange reserves and betting on increasing the share of gold.

This approach can be seen as strategic, since gold is perceived as a more stable asset compared to US government bonds. At the same time, the market is discussing possible regulatory steps to stabilize the national currency.

Euro versus dollar: focus on key statistics

The EUR/USD rate has held above 1.17, and market attention is now centered on upcoming economic data from both the US and the eurozone. These reports may determine the pair’s further direction. It is worth noting that the coming week promises to be eventful, so traders should account for a high chance of sharp fluctuations.

• euro may rise if the dollar remains pressured by weak statistics;
• range-bound dynamics are likely in case of mixed data from both economies;
• dollar strengthening cannot be ruled out if US labor figures surprise on the upside.

Each of these scenarios requires particular caution from market participants, as current uncertainty could develop into large-scale trends.

Main risks of September

September is traditionally considered a month of high activity in the currency market. This time attention is focused on several factors that could shift the balance of power.

• publication of US labor market data;
• possible statements from the Federal Reserve on interest rate policy;
• actions of central banks in emerging markets to defend national currencies;
• changes in the structure of international reserves.

Each of these factors could become the starting point for a new round of currency movements. That is why experts advise following the news carefully and being ready to adjust trading strategies quickly.