In mid-2025, the global economy is showing a notable trend: the share of the dollar in international settlements has begun to decline significantly. According to independent research groups, for the first time in the past ten years, less than 55% of cross-border contracts are concluded in US dollars. This is happening amid the strengthening of the yuan, the euro, and a growing number of regional currency agreements.

One of the main reasons cited by analysts is the rising number of countries seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar in energy and raw material transactions. Many governments are signing direct bilateral agreements, bypassing the dollar-based system.

Why trust in the dollar is declining

Financial and political developments in recent months have played a key role. In 2025, the US faced internal debates over the national debt ceiling, which led to a temporary freeze of certain federal programs. This caused concern among partners, especially those holding significant reserves in dollars.

In addition, increasing geopolitical tensions and the use of the dollar as a sanctions instrument have fueled interest in alternative settlement systems and reserve currencies.

Who benefits from the weakening role of the dollar

Despite growing concern in Washington, some regions and sectors of the global economy view the situation as an opportunity. Below are the main beneficiaries of the shifting currency balance:

• Emerging markets actively introducing local currencies in foreign trade;

• Major Asian and Middle Eastern economies signing oil and gas contracts without the dollar;

• Financial platforms and blockchain-based solutions offering settlements in digital currencies;

• Companies operating under sanctions gaining more flexibility;

• Countries diversifying foreign reserves in favor of the yuan, gold, and digital assets.

This shift is creating new rules in the global economy, reducing the historical dominance of the dollar and increasing the importance of alternative currency strategies.

What's next

Economists do not predict a sharp collapse of the dollar — it remains the most important reserve currency. However, the changing behavior of international counterparties points to the beginning of a long-term trend. If the US does not restore macroeconomic stability and improve financial transparency, the share of the dollar in global reserves and settlements may continue to shrink.

For businesses, this means a need to diversify currency risks. For investors, it calls for a reevaluation of strategies based on global trends rather than solely on domestic US dynamics