In the second half of 2025, the global economy may experience a noticeable deceleration in growth. This forecast was presented by analysts at Swiss bank UBS, despite the fact that recent macroeconomic data from the US and the European Union have shown positive momentum. Experts warn that the temporary drivers of growth—namely, a surge in exports ahead of tariff introductions—may lose their effect toward the end of the year.

The report highlights that the overall global economic environment remains unstable. Earlier, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development lowered its 2025 global GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 2.9%, citing the growing impact of trade barriers and uncertainty in US policy.

Europe under pressure

European markets remain at risk, particularly in light of recent actions by the Trump administration, which included threats of new tariffs against the EU. However, UBS experts believe that several recent rulings by international courts could delay the implementation of such measures, reducing immediate threats to the region’s economy.

Analysts suggest that if the current trade status quo holds, European credit spreads—the difference between yields on corporate and government bonds—are likely to remain stable. This would indicate reduced market anxiety over defaults or declining credit quality.

According to UBS, the following opportunities are emerging for investors:

• Investments in financial-sector debt, which has shown strong resilience;
• Selective allocation to capital goods and utilities, which are currently performing best;
• A cautious stance toward energy and basic materials, which remain most sensitive to trade headlines;
• Long positions in the iTraxx Europe Main index, which tracks credit risks of leading European firms.

What to expect in the second half of the year?

UBS does not rule out the possibility that market volatility may increase in July, especially if the suspension of new US tariffs expires. Nevertheless, experts argue that the European private credit market remains fundamentally solid—companies maintain healthy balance sheets, default rates are low, and cash reserves are sufficient to support liquidity.

Thus, despite signs of a global slowdown, UBS believes that European investors can still count on relative stability and even moderate growth in certain sectors